The Market Breathes
Six years of quiet and active phases, in one scrolling picture.
The two states every stock cycles through: quiet phases where the price range tightens, active phases where it expands.
Markets alternate between two states. In quiet phases, daily price ranges tighten and stocks drift inside narrow bands. In active phases, ranges expand and prices travel. Neither state is good or bad: they are simply the market’s two ways of breathing.
Every night after the US close, the Market Pressure Index counts how much of the market is in the quiet state: one number, computed the same way for everyone, across 3,594 US common stocks. Scroll to see what six years of it look like.
Six years in one line
1,526 sessions · Jun 26, 2020 to Jul 27, 2026Each point is one trading session: the share of evaluated US stocks whose recent range had tightened into quiet compression. The white dashed lines are the boundary zones: only 5% of sessions have closed above the upper line or below the lower one. The line draws itself; sit back and watch the six episodes land.
Keep scrolling: the line draws itself session by session, and six landmark episodes light up along the way.
No reading, past or present, predicts future market behavior. The line above is a description of where the market has been, drawn from the same nightly computation each session.
For readability the six year line samples roughly one session per week. Landmark markers use exact daily readings, so a marker can sit slightly off the sampled line. All records are qualified as records in ArcAlpha data, which begins June 2020.
Anatomy of a storm
Zoom into the spring of 2025 and the whole cycle plays out in fourteen weeks: quiet builds, quiet breaks, quiet rebuilds. The three chapters play through on their own; tap a dot to revisit one.
February 15 to June 15, 2025
Chapter 1 of 3The quiet build
Through March the reading climbed as price ranges tightened across the market. By the close on March 31 it stood at 63.4%, well inside the upper boundary zone.
The zoomed line uses the same weekly sampled series as the six year chart; the May 1 marker shows the exact daily reading, which sits above the sampled line. Descriptive history, not a pattern that repeats on schedule.
Sectors breathe on their own clocks
The headline index is the average of eleven very different pulses. Over the shared history, sector readings track the headline anywhere from closely, a correlation of 0.91, down to loosely, 0.33, in ArcAlpha data. Sectors compress and release on their own schedules: one can sit at its boundary while the market overall reads mid range.
Financials, March 2023
On March 15, 2023, the week a major US bank failed, the Financials reading fell to 13.7%, its record low in ArcAlpha data (series begins June 2020). Just 26 days later it printed its record high, 82.8%. A full cycle, from record active to record quiet, contained in a single sector in under a month, while the headline index barely registered it.
Communication Services
59.7% · 93th pctileConsumer Discretionary
57.4% · 88th pctileConsumer Staples
69.8% · 99th pctileEnergy
34.8% · 24th pctileFinancials
68.2% · 93th pctileHealth Care
62.1% · 94th pctileIndustrials
54.0% · 76th pctileMaterials
69.4% · 98th pctileReal Estate
56.1% · 57th pctileTechnology
56.8% · 88th pctileUtilities
68.5% · 94th pctileWhite dashed lines mark each sector’s own 5th and 95th percentile of all readings in ArcAlpha data since June 2020.
Where is it now
As of the close of July 27, 2026, 59.9% of evaluated US stocks are in quiet compression, the 94th percentile of all readings in ArcAlpha data since Jun 26, 2020. Updated nightly after the US close.
No reading, past or present, predicts future market behavior.
Follow the breathing, once a week
One educational email each week: the latest reading and how it sits against six years of history. No trading calls, ever. Unsubscribe anytime.
Aggregate market statistic for educational purposes only. Historical readings do not predict future market behavior. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. ArcAlpha is an educational market intelligence platform, not an investment advisor.